re. China Shock and job losses, we basically switched from manufacturing (manly) to healthcare service work (womanly). They net out, but the cultural impact is not zero. Far from it. It may be a good thing, but composition matters.
re. steelman, intuitively (ala Buffett), trading ownership tomorrow for consumption today, should give one pause. "Hey, we can consume all your stuff today, while tomorrow you'll cash in those IOUs" creates some duration-mismatched incentives. Just because the exchange is happening, doesn't mean it's a *good* exchange.
1) I think the evidence shows that we'd have seen steep manufacturing losses regardless of what we did with China given automation and other factors. So I don't doubt the decline of manufacturing has a cultural impact (though probably more muted than you) that differed by gender, but I don't think it has much to do with China.
2) It's certainty true that you can't do this literally forever, but it's certainly sustainable for a long period of time (which is the point I was making). Whatever is happening does not require such drastic action today as to ignore the costs of such action. And I probably agree that the US should run lower budget deficits and increase its savings rates to lower its current account balance. But that's different than the tariffs proposed.
Good piece!
Two quick points:
re. China Shock and job losses, we basically switched from manufacturing (manly) to healthcare service work (womanly). They net out, but the cultural impact is not zero. Far from it. It may be a good thing, but composition matters.
re. steelman, intuitively (ala Buffett), trading ownership tomorrow for consumption today, should give one pause. "Hey, we can consume all your stuff today, while tomorrow you'll cash in those IOUs" creates some duration-mismatched incentives. Just because the exchange is happening, doesn't mean it's a *good* exchange.
Fair points.
1) I think the evidence shows that we'd have seen steep manufacturing losses regardless of what we did with China given automation and other factors. So I don't doubt the decline of manufacturing has a cultural impact (though probably more muted than you) that differed by gender, but I don't think it has much to do with China.
2) It's certainty true that you can't do this literally forever, but it's certainly sustainable for a long period of time (which is the point I was making). Whatever is happening does not require such drastic action today as to ignore the costs of such action. And I probably agree that the US should run lower budget deficits and increase its savings rates to lower its current account balance. But that's different than the tariffs proposed.